Inside Walmart's Logistics Playbook: How Big-Box Retailers Responded to Trump's Tariffs

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President Donald Trump has ramped up tariffs on imported goods from China, challenging a resolution to the growing trade tensions. We dig into how major retailers and corporations have adjusted their global supply chains in response to the expanding U.S.-China trade conflict.

We unpack Walmart and other big-box retailers' strategies and negotiating tactics to keep prices low for U.S. consumers. Find out how Walmart executives are navigating the geopolitical challenges, including the Chinese government's response to their hardball business practices in the country, and how the Chinese economy might do if other U.S. businesses follow Walmart's game plan.

How U.S. tariffs on China have impacted Walmart and other U.S. retailers

Host 1  00:00

Everyday low prices, have you ever thought about what it actually takes to make that happen, the whole global machine that goes into making those prices a reality? That machine right now is facing somewhat serious pressure.

Host 2  00:13

That's what this deep dive is all about—trying to understand those pressures, particularly how all this back and forth between the U.S. and China on trade, and all these tariffs that have come out of it, are really putting Walmart's whole business model to the test.

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Host 1  00:43

Their strategy for decades now has basically been to find the cheapest place to make stuff, wherever that is in the world. And for Walmart, that has meant China for a long time, and we're talking like a huge amount, like 60% of all the stuff they sell globally comes from China.

Host 2  01:00

It really fueled, you know, this incredible boom in Chinese manufacturing, and allowed Walmart to deliver on that brand promise of everyday low prices. These tariffs—these new import taxes that the U.S. has slapped on a whole bunch of Chinese goods—that has really thrown a wrench in the whole system.

Host 1  01:19

Their core strategy is suddenly under pressure. They're basically saying to their Chinese suppliers, hey, you've got to lower your prices, which, you know, when you're Walmart, and you have that kind of buying power, you can probably get away with that.

Host 2  01:30

Yeah. Well, sometimes.

How Walmart and U.S. retailers are responding to Trump’s tariffs on China

Host 1  01:32

What happens when they start squeezing their Chinese suppliers? And then what does it all mean, you know, for China, for the relationship between the U.S. and China, and ultimately for us, the shoppers?

Host 2  01:42

Right, the people pushing the cart through the Walmart aisles. So basically, they're saying to these manufacturers, hey, you know the U.S. put these tariffs on your goods, which increases our costs, so you need to lower your prices to help us offset that. And there's been reporting that Walmart is actually asking some suppliers to cut their prices by as much as 10% for each round of tariffs.

Host 1  02:03

10%?

Host 2  02:04

10%!

Host 1  02:04

That's huge.

Host 2  02:05

It is. 

Host 1  02:06

That seems like a lot to ask.

Host 2  02:07

It is.

Host 1  02:08

But, I mean, it really shows you the power that Walmart has.

Host 2  02:11

Yeah, it does.

Host 1  02:12

I mean, they're such a huge buyer.

Host 2  02:14

Right.

Host 1  02:14

They've got so much leverage.

Host 2  02:16

Yeah, and their CEO, Doug McMillon, has said point blank, their goal is to keep prices as low as possible for the consumer, for us.

Host 1  02:25

But I mean, are the Chinese suppliers just going along with this?

Host 2  02:28

So that's where it gets interesting. There's been a little pushback.

Host 1  02:31

And it's not just the suppliers who are unhappy.

Host 2  02:33

Right.

How the Chinese government has responded to Trump’s tariffs

Host 1  02:33

I mean, even the Chinese government is getting involved.

Host 2  02:36

Oh, yeah. So apparently, China's Ministry of Commerce actually issued a warning to Walmart.

Host 1  02:42

Really?

Host 2  02:43

Saying that you know, forcing these price cuts could be a violation of contracts and could disrupt the market. They even hinted at potential legal action.

Host 1  02:52

Legal action? This is getting serious.

Host 2  02:54

It's getting very serious. Yeah, it shows how much global business and international politics are totally intertwined now. 

Host 1  03:02

It's all connected. And didn't they even summon Walmart representatives over to Beijing for talks?

Host 2  03:08

They did!

Host 1  03:09

I mean, that shows you how high up this has gone.

Host 2  03:11

It does. It shows that this is really sensitive at the government level.

Host 1  03:14

So what's Walmart saying about all this?

Host 2  03:18

Publicly, they're downplaying it.

Host 1  03:20

Yeah?

Host 2  03:20

They're saying they're going to work with their suppliers.

Host 1  03:22

Oh.

Host 2  03:23

And they're urging, you know, both sides, the U.S. and China, to, like, find some middle ground to avoid these price increases.

Host 1  03:32

Right, because ultimately, they're trying to walk this really fine line, right? They need those Chinese factories to keep producing, right? To keep their shelves stocked, but they also have to keep American shoppers happy with those low prices.

Host 2  03:36

They are. Of course.

Host 1  03:47

They're really in a tricky spot. So we've talked about how Walmart is dealing with all of this, but this pressure on their suppliers is just one piece of the story. We need to zoom out a little bit and look at what's happening in China more broadly.

Host 2  03:59

Yeah, because their economy is under a lot of pressure too.

Host 1  04:02

Okay, so what does all this look like from the perspective of a factory owner in China?

Host 2  04:07

Well, they're feeling the squeeze big time. China's economy, especially the part that depends on exports, has been slowing down. You know, in early 2025, their exports only grew by about 2.3%.

Host 1  04:22

Okay.

Host 2  04:23

And for context, for years, they were used to growth rates in the double digits, so this is a big drop.

Host 1  04:29

Big change!

Host 2  04:30

Yeah. And if you look at the whole of 2024, their total exports actually shrank by about 5% in dollar terms. So for a country whose economic miracle was built on exports, that's a pretty big deal.

Host 1  04:44

Yeah, it's like their whole model was based on making stuff and selling it to the rest of the world.

Host 2  04:49

Right.

Host 1  04:49

So what's causing this slowdown?

Host 2  04:52

Well, a few things, obviously, these trade tensions and tariffs from the U.S., those are a big factor making Chinese goods more expensive, but it's also a reflection of the fact that globally, demand is just weaker, and on top of that, their own domestic economy in China isn't exactly booming either. 

Host 1  05:10

Yeah, we've been hearing about that.

Host 2  05:12

Yeah.

Host 1  05:12

Like consumers aren't spending as much.

Host 2  05:14

Right.

Host 1  05:14

And there's this huge property debt crisis, which is shaking people's confidence. So what does that mean for these factories?

Host 2  05:21

It means they're facing a problem called over-capacity. Basically, they have the ability to make way more stuff than they can actually sell. So you've got all these factories sitting idle, and that can lead to problems like deflation and even more intense competition, both within China and globally.

Host 1  05:37

So is over-capacity, like, a widespread issue?

Host 2  05:39

Oh, yeah, definitely. You know, steel is a great example. China produces way more steel than it needs, and even the Chinese government has said that industrial over-capacity is a big challenge for them. And then, on top of everything else, last year, China's trading partners launched a record number of trade investigations against them.

Host 1  05:58

How many?

Host 2  05:59

Over 160.

Host 1  06:00

Wow. That's more than double the year before.

Host 2  06:02

Exactly.

Host 1  06:03

So, I mean, they're really getting hit from all sides.

Host 2  06:05

They are. These are anti-dumping cases, tariffs, all sorts of things.

Host 1  06:08

Right.

Host 2  06:09

From countries all over the world.

Host 1  06:10

On what kinds of products?

Host 2  06:12

Steel, solar panels, textiles, you name it.

Host 1  06:15

Wow.

Host 2  06:15

Even countries like India, Brazil and Turkey are putting up trade barriers. So these Chinese factories, they're getting squeezed from all sides, you know, higher costs because of tariffs, raw materials getting more expensive, and demand is down, both in China and globally. So when Walmart comes in and says, we need another 10% off, it feels like they're being asked to bear the entire brunt of these tariffs.

Host 1  06:39

Yeah, which they had nothing to do with.

Host 2  06:41

Exactly.

Host 1  06:41

Right.

Host 2  06:42

So how is the Chinese government responding to all of this? Well, they've got this long-term strategy they're calling dual circulation. It's all about making their economy less reliant on exports and more focused on domestic consumption. They want to build up their internal market, make it stronger.

Host 1  06:59

So kind of, like, less dependent on selling to the U.S. and Europe. It makes sense. What else are they doing?

Host 2  07:05

Well, they can play around with the value of their currency, the yuan.

Host 1  07:08

Right.

Host 2  07:09

Make it weaker, and that makes their exports cheaper. They've done that before. They're also giving tax breaks and other incentives to their exporters, trying to keep them afloat. But I think the most important thing they're doing in the long run is trying to find new markets.

Host 1  07:24

Where are they looking?

Host 2  07:25

Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America—places that aren't already saturated with their products. And they're doing this through big infrastructure projects like the Belt and Road Initiative.

Host 1  07:37

Yeah, I've heard about that.

Host 2  07:38

Yeah. It's all about building connections, making it easier to trade with those countries. And, you know, the U.S. share of China's total exports has actually been shrinking for a while now.

Host 1  07:49

Really?

Host 2  07:49

Yeah, and this whole tariff thing is probably going to accelerate that trend.

Host 1  07:53

So they're pivoting, finding new ways to grow.

Host 2  07:56

Yeah, definitely. But that doesn't mean they're just going to roll over and accept these tariffs without pushing back.

Host 1  08:01

Right.

Host 2  08:02

I mean, diplomatically, they're making it very clear that they're not happy about this. They're saying these tariffs are unfair, they're harmful. You'll often hear them say, you know, China will not be bullied.

Host 1  08:13

Yeah, that sounds familiar.

Host 2  08:15

And of course, they've retaliated with their own tariffs, particularly targeting U.S. agriculture.

Host 1  08:19

Right.

Host 2  08:20

But what's interesting is that their tariffs have generally been lower than the ones the U.S. imposed. And some people think that might be deliberate.

Host 1  08:27

Oh, like a signal?

Host 2  08:28

Yeah, like they're leaving the door open for negotiation.

Host 1  08:31

Okay.

Host 2  08:32

They've also challenged the tariffs at the WTO, the World Trade Organization, which, you know, it's mostly symbolic, but it shows they're willing to fight this on the international stage.

The history of U.S.-China tariffs and trade tensions

Host 1  08:41

So they're adapting their strategy, but they're also pushing back. So, we've talked about Walmart, we've talked about China. Now, let's zoom out even further and talk about the bigger picture, the trade war itself and this idea of a great decoupling between the U.S. and China. How did we even get here?

Host 2  08:57

Okay, so rewind to 2018.

Host 1  08:59

Okay.

Host 2  09:00

Trump is president.

Host 1  09:01

First term.

Host 2  09:01

Exactly, and his administration starts putting tariffs on all sorts of Chinese goods. They were worried about unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, all that stuff.

Host 1  09:13

Right. And, of course, China retaliated, putting tariffs on American goods, and it just escalated from there. By 2019, we had tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods going both ways.

Host 2  09:24

Yeah, I remember that. It was like, every few months, there was a new announcement about more tariffs.

Host 1  09:29

Exactly.

Host 2  09:29

It felt like this, like a never-ending cycle of escalation.

Host 1  09:33

Yeah, it really did. And then, remember, we had that phase-one trade deal in early 2020?

Host 2  09:39

Yeah. Was that supposed to be the, like, the truce?

Host 1  09:41

It was supposed to be a step toward de-escalation. China agreed to buy more stuff from the U.S., and they promised to do more to protect intellectual property.

Host 2  09:50

Okay.

Host 1  09:50

But, and this is important, most of the tariffs stayed in place. So those higher import taxes, they basically became the new normal.

Host 2  09:59

So even with the deal, things were still more expensive?

Host 1  10:01

Exactly. Then Biden comes in, right?

Host 2  10:02

Yeah.

Host 1  10:03

And there was some thought that maybe he'd roll back some of the tariffs, but he didn't really. He mostly kept Trump's policies in place.

Host 2  10:11

So, it was more of a continuation than a change, and they even added some new measures, like those export controls on semiconductors, you know, the chips that are in everything these days.

Host 1  10:21

Right.

Host 2  10:22

They were worried about China catching up in the tech race. And there was even talk about tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Host 1  10:30

Interesting.

Host 2  10:30

It showed that this idea of being tough on China, it had a lot of support in Washington.

Host 1  10:35

From both parties?

Host 2  10:36

From both parties.

Host 1  10:37

And then, fast forward to 2025, Trump gets elected again, and he basically picks up where he left off, maybe even ramps things up.

Host 2  10:45

Yeah, definitely.

Host 1  10:46

I mean, a 10% tariff on all remaining Chinese imports.

Host 2  10:51

Yeah!

Host 1  10:51

That was a pretty big move.

Host 2  10:53

It was. That happened in February, and then a month later, they doubled it.

Host 1  10:57

20%?

Host 2  10:58

20%. And they said it was because China wasn't doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl precursors.

Host 1  11:03

Right, so basically, everything coming from China was suddenly way more expensive.

Host 2  11:06

Yeah, pretty much. And China retaliated, as you'd expect.

Host 1  11:10

Yeah, more tariffs on our agricultural exports, export controls on critical minerals, the whole thing. And they followed through on that WTO lawsuit.

Host 2  11:18

They did.

Host 1  11:19

And even launched an anti-trust investigation into Google.

Host 2  11:22

It's pretty clear they're not backing down.

Host 1  11:24

Yeah. So this idea of a great decoupling, or, you know, China plus one.

Host 2  11:29

Yeah.

Host 1  11:29

It seems like that's really gaining steam now.

The China+1 Strategy: How U.S. retailers moved their global supply chain away from China

Host 2  11:31

It is. I mean, American companies are rethinking their reliance on China, big time.

Host 1  11:38

Right.

Host 2  11:38

Walmart moving their sourcing around is just one example. We're seeing other retailers do the same thing: Target, Best Buy, you name it. They're looking for other places to make stuff, other places to buy from.

Host 1  11:49

So places like Vietnam, Thailand, India, Mexico.

Host 2  11:53

Exactly. And their share of U.S. imports has been growing, while China's share has been shrinking. It's like China plus one!

Host 1  12:00

Keep some stuff in China, but have a backup.

Host 2  12:02

Exactly.

Host 1  12:03

A backup plan.

Host 2  12:04

Hedge your bets.

Host 1  12:05

Hedge your bets. I like that. So, it's not necessarily about abandoning China completely.

Host 2  12:11

It's about having options. It's about reducing your risk. Like, take Apple, for example. For years, almost all their iPhones were made in China, but now they're making a lot more in India and Vietnam.

Host 1  12:20

Really?

Host 2  12:21

Yeah. And they said they want to expand production there even more for iPads and AirPods.

Host 1  12:25

Wow. So even Apple is doing the China plus one thing.

Host 2  12:29

Yep.

Host 1  12:29

So we're seeing some reshoring too, right, like American companies bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.

Host 2  12:36

To some extent.

Host 1  12:37

Yeah?

Host 2  12:37

And a lot of investment in nearshoring, you know, places like Mexico. 

Host 1  12:42

Right.

Host 2  12:42

Closer to home, lower shipping costs. So the picture is definitely changing. China is still a huge player. They've got a lot of advantages, but companies are thinking twice before they put all their eggs in that basket.

Host 1  12:54

Right, spreading the risk. And the Chinese government, they've got to be worried about this.

Host 2  12:59

They are. They're doing their best to keep foreign companies happy.

Host 1  13:01

Yeah.

Host 2  13:02

But this whole decoupling thing, it's already happening, and it might be hard to stop.

The impact of Trump’s tariffs on U.S. consumers and the economy

Host 1  13:06

So at the end of the day, what does all this mean for us here in America?

Host 2  13:11

Well, the main thing is that it's going to affect prices. When these companies face higher costs because of tariffs, well, those costs have to go somewhere.

Host 1  13:20

Yeah.

Host 2  13:20

And a lot of times, they end up getting passed on to us, the shoppers.

Host 1  13:23

Right.

Host 2  13:24

And when we talk about everyday shopping, you can't ignore Walmart. They are huge.

Host 1  13:28

Yeah.

Host 2  13:29

They sell everything, especially the stuff we need, like groceries.

Host 1  13:32

Right. Right.

Host 2  13:33

So the decisions they make about pricing, they have a big impact on how much things cost for everyone.

Host 1  13:38

Yeah.

Host 2  13:39

They're going to try really hard not to raise prices. They're squeezing suppliers. They're diversifying their sourcing.

Host 1  13:45

Right.

Host 2  13:45

But if these tariffs keep going up, or even stay where they are, they might have no choice.

Host 1  13:50

So that tax on Chinese imports, it's actually a tax on us.

Host 2  13:55

Exactly. That's what a lot of economists say. We're the ones who end up paying more.

Host 1  13:59

Yeah, because those costs get passed on to us in the form of higher prices.

Host 2  14:02

Right.

Host 1  14:03

We saw that with the earlier rounds of tariffs, back in 2018, 2019, studies showed that American consumers basically bore the brunt of those costs.

Host 2  14:11

And we're hearing the same thing now from other retailers like Best Buy and Target. They're saying these new tariffs are going to lead to higher prices. Even Walmart's own CFO is worried about it. He's talking about the impact on people's wallets and the risk of making inflation worse.

Host 1  14:30

So what kinds of things are we going to see get more expensive?

Host 2  14:34

Think about the stuff you see at Walmart, you know, clothes, shoes, electronics, toys, appliances, furniture, even decorations for the holidays.

Host 1  14:45

Yeah.

Host 2  14:46

A lot of that stuff is made in China, or at least uses parts that come from China.

Host 1  14:50

Right.

Host 2  14:50

So, for example, China makes a huge amount of the world's clothing, so tariffs on textiles, I mean, shirts and pants are going to get more expensive.

Host 1  14:58

Makes sense.

Host 2  14:58

And a lot of toys and electronics, they're mostly made in China.

Host 1  15:01

Yeah.

Host 2  15:01

It's hard to find other places that can make those things on the same scale, at least in the short term.

Host 1  15:06

Right.

Host 2  15:06

So those prices are going to go up, too, and it adds up. Some estimates say that the average U.S. household is already paying hundreds of dollars more per year because of tariffs, and with these new tariffs, it could go up even more.

Host 1  15:21

Wow, $1,000 or more per year?

Host 2  15:23

Potentially. Yeah, it's a big hit to people's budgets. So yeah, while Walmart is trying to do what they can, but, at some point, someone has got to give.

Host 1  15:31

Yeah, it's hard to see how they can keep prices low if everything they buy is getting more expensive.

Host 2  15:36

Right. I mean, they might try to absorb some of the costs themselves or shift their sourcing around, but that takes time, and it costs money.

Host 1  15:44

Yeah.

Host 2  15:44

And they might have to get creative with pricing, you know, maybe raise prices on some things, but not others, trying to make it less noticeable to shoppers.

Host 1  15:52

Right. Strategic.

Host 2  15:53

Yeah. But smaller retailers, they might not have that luxury. They're going to have to pass those costs on to their customers much more quickly. We might also see some shortages. You know, some products might not be available, or they might have to change what they sell, as they find new suppliers, and there's always the risk of disruptions, like, remember, when everyone is stockpiling toilet paper?

Host 1  16:16

Oh, yeah.

Host 2  16:16

Yeah, that kind of thing could happen again. 

Host 1  16:17

Yeah. So these tariffs, they're not hitting everyone equally.

Host 2  16:20

Right.

Host 1  16:21

It's the people who can least afford it, the lower-income households, who are going to feel it the most.

Host 2  16:25

Exactly, and that's a big problem, because those are a lot of Walmart's customers.

Host 1  16:29

Yeah, they're the ones who depend on those low prices the most. So when you hear Walmart talking about protecting consumers, they mean it, but it's also good business for them. They need those customers. So yeah, there is a long-term argument about reshoring, bringing jobs back to the U.S., all that, but, in the short term, the main impact of these tariffs is that things are going to get more expensive for everyone.

Host 2  16:55

I think that's a safe bet, and it's important to remember, this is all about more than just economics. It's about politics, it's about power, it's about the relationship between the U.S. and China, and that relationship has definitely changed. I mean, now you've got both [political] parties in the U.S. basically agreeing that we need to be tough on China. We saw it with Biden, and we're seeing it now with Trump in his second term. The policies haven't really changed all that much.

Host 1  17:23

Yeah, it's like, that's the one thing everyone can agree on these days.

Host 2  17:27

Yeah. And politicians, they want to look strong, they want to be seen as standing up to China. But they also have to worry about what voters think, and if prices keep going up, people aren't going to be happy.

Host 1  17:40

Yeah, that could be a big problem in the next election.

Host 2  17:42

It could. But even the Treasury Department is saying that these tariffs are a price worth paying.

Host 1  17:48

They're saying that?

Host 2  17:49

They are. They're saying it's necessary for strategic reasons. But you know, how long will people be willing to pay that price?

Host 1  17:56

Right. That's the question.

Host 2  17:57

So what about China?

Host 1  17:59

They're in a tough spot too, right?

Host 2  18:00

They are. They've got to balance their own nationalist feelings with the need to keep their economy stable. They want to project strength. They don't want to look weak.

Host 1  18:09

Right.

Host 2  18:09

So you hear them saying things like, China will not be bullied.

Host 1  18:13

Yeah.

Host 2  18:14

And when Walmart was trying to get those price cuts, the Chinese media was all over it, saying it was bad for everyone. But behind the scenes, they're being a little more cautious.

Host 1  18:23

Okay.

Host 2  18:23

They talked to Walmart. They issued warnings, but they didn't do anything drastic.

Host 1  18:27

Right.

Host 2  18:28

And the retaliatory tariffs, they were targeted. They were limited, 

Host 1  18:32

Like a calculated response.

Host 2  18:33

Yeah.

Host 1  18:34

Avoiding the big American brands, keeping their tariffs a little lower than ours.

Host 2  18:37

Exactly. Maybe they're hoping that things will calm down, that they can work out a compromise, because a full-blown trade war would hurt them, too.

Host 1  18:38

Yeah, no one wins in a trade war.

Host 2  18:47

Yeah.

Host 1  18:48

So, what about the rest of the world? Are they picking sides in this?

Host 2  18:51

Well, a lot of America's allies, they're not exactly thrilled about these tariffs. They have their own issues with China, but they're not sure that this is the right way to handle it.

Host 1  19:02

Right.

Host 2  19:03

They'd rather see a more multilateral approach, and China's using that to their advantage.

Host 1  19:08

How so?

Host 2  19:08

Remember that WTO lawsuit?

Host 1  19:10

Yeah.

Host 2  19:11

It's mostly symbolic, but it's a way for China to say, look, we're the reasonable ones here. The U.S. is breaking the rules, and they could go even further.

Host 1  19:20

Like what?

Host 2  19:21

They could make it harder for American goods to get into China, more inspections, stricter regulations, that kind of thing.

Host 1  19:27

Okay?

Host 2  19:28

And they could even encourage people to boycott American brands.

Host 1  19:32

Wow, like a consumer boycott?

Host 2  19:33

Yeah.

Host 1  19:34

That would hurt.

Host 2  19:34

It would, and they've done it before.

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